Turkey and Greece: Renewed Diplomatic Efforts Amid Maritime Disputes
Against a backdrop of shifting geopolitical dynamics, economic pressures, and international mediation, Ankara and Athens are exploring avenues to ease tensions and address longstanding disagreements.
The Eastern Mediterranean has long been a stage for tensions between Turkey and Greece, with disputes over maritime boundaries, natural resources, and airspace frequently bringing the two NATO allies to the brink of conflict. However, recent developments have sparked cautious optimism for renewed diplomacy. Against a backdrop of shifting geopolitical dynamics, economic pressures, and international mediation, Ankara and Athens are exploring avenues to ease tensions and address longstanding disagreements.
Key Issues in the Turkey-Greece Dispute
1. Maritime Boundaries and Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs)
- Overlapping Claims: Turkey and Greece both assert overlapping claims to territorial waters and EEZs in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, exacerbated by the region's complex geography of islands and coastlines.
- Island Sovereignty: Greece’s assertion of territorial rights around islands close to Turkey, including Kastellorizo, is a major point of contention. Ankara argues that these islands’ proximity to Turkey’s mainland undermines their entitlement to expansive maritime zones.
2. Energy Resources and Exploration
- Natural Gas Reserves: The discovery of gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean has intensified disputes, with both nations vying for exploration and drilling rights.
- Turkish Drilling Operations: Turkey’s deployment of drilling ships in contested waters has drawn criticism from Greece and the EU, escalating tensions in recent years.
3. Airspace and Military Incidents
- Airspace Violations: Both countries accuse each other of violating airspace, with frequent military flyovers and intercepts creating the risk of accidental confrontations.
- Militarization of Islands: Turkey has protested Greece’s military buildup on islands near its coast, claiming it violates international treaties such as the Treaty of Lausanne.
4. Migration and Border Control
- Migration pressures in the Aegean have added another layer of tension, with both countries blaming each other for incidents involving refugee boats and border security.
Recent Efforts Toward Diplomacy
1. Leadership Dynamics
- Erdogan-Mitsotakis Rapprochement: Following a period of strained relations, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis have initiated dialogue, marking a shift toward a more cooperative tone.
- Election Pressures: Domestic political considerations in both countries, including economic challenges and upcoming elections, have incentivized leaders to seek diplomatic solutions to avoid further escalation.
2. NATO Mediation
- NATO has played a critical role in fostering communication between Turkey and Greece, emphasizing the need for cohesion among allies amid broader security challenges, particularly in the context of the war in Ukraine.
3. Joint Committees and Confidence-Building Measures
- Both nations have agreed to revive bilateral talks on confidence-building measures, including mechanisms to reduce military incidents in the Aegean and establish communication channels to de-escalate tensions.
4. International Mediation
- The European Union and the United States have actively encouraged dialogue, linking progress in resolving disputes to potential economic benefits, such as expanded energy cooperation and trade partnerships.
Geopolitical and Economic Context
1. The Ukraine War and Regional Security
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shifted the geopolitical landscape, prompting NATO to focus on unity among its members. Both Turkey and Greece have been pressured to align their policies with broader Western strategic goals, creating an opportunity for reconciliation.
2. Energy and Economic Incentives
- Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF): Both nations have a stake in the region’s energy future. Cooperation through forums like the EMGF could unlock economic benefits and reduce dependency on Russian energy supplies.
- Economic Pressures: Inflation, economic slowdowns, and the need for foreign investment have created mutual incentives to avoid costly military confrontations.
Challenges to Lasting Resolution
1. Nationalism and Domestic Politics
- Nationalist sentiments in both countries remain strong, with political leaders facing pressure to take hardline stances on key issues.
- Historical grievances, including unresolved disputes over Cyprus and the 1974 Turkish invasion, continue to influence public perceptions.
2. Legal Disagreements
- The lack of consensus on international legal frameworks, such as the interpretation of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), complicates efforts to resolve maritime disputes.
3. Military Dynamics
- Despite efforts to reduce tensions, both nations continue to invest heavily in defense, with Greece securing advanced fighter jets and Turkey expanding its naval capabilities. This arms buildup underscores the lingering mistrust between the two countries.
Opportunities for Cooperation
1. Energy Development
- Joint exploration and development of natural gas resources could serve as a foundation for collaboration, potentially mediated by the EU or international organizations.
- Infrastructure projects like shared pipelines and energy hubs could provide economic incentives for cooperation.
2. Migration Management
- Coordinated efforts to address migration challenges in the Aegean, with support from the EU, could improve border security and humanitarian outcomes while fostering trust.
3. Cultural and Economic Exchanges
- Expanding cultural and economic ties, including tourism and trade, could help build public support for reconciliation and reduce the influence of nationalist rhetoric.
Conclusion
The renewed diplomatic efforts between Turkey and Greece offer a glimmer of hope for resolving one of the Eastern Mediterranean’s most enduring disputes. While challenges remain, the shifting geopolitical and economic landscape provides an opportunity for progress. If both nations can capitalize on these openings, they may not only ease bilateral tensions but also contribute to regional stability and cooperation in an increasingly interconnected and volatile world.